South Africans are feeling the pinch at the dinner table as surging meat prices—driven by a widespread foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak—push food inflation higher, despite overall inflation remaining stable.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), consumer inflation held steady at 2.8% in May, but food prices continue to climb. The food and non-alcoholic beverages category was the biggest contributor to the monthly CPI increase, rising by 1.1% in May, following a 1.3% jump in April. On an annual basis, food inflation now sits at 4.8%—the highest level since March 2024.
Beef Prices Take the Lead in Meat Inflation
Beef, a staple in many South African households, is at the heart of this price surge. The meat category jumped from 3% in April to 4.4% in May, with the following notable increases:
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🥩 Beef steak: up 4.5%
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🍲 Stewing beef: up 2.5%
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🥘 Beef mince: up 1.7%
The price hike is largely attributed to the ongoing FMD outbreak, which has led to livestock quarantines, halted exports, and disrupted supply chains—compounded by higher feed costs.
Economists Sound the Alarm
Economist Casey Sprake highlighted the deeper risks posed by these developments:
“Food inflation is re-emerging as a concern, particularly as it reflects the lagging effects of supply-side shocks like the FMD outbreak and rising input costs. These factors are squeezing both producers and consumers.”
She added that lower-income households are especially vulnerable to these increases:
“Essential food items like beef are non-discretionary, meaning families can’t just cut them out. Continued inflation in this area threatens to erode purchasing power and widen inequality.”
Inflation Picture Still Mixed
While food costs climb, there is some relief on the fuel front. According to Stats SA:
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⛽ Petrol prices have dropped 15.9% year-on-year
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🚛 Diesel prices fell 12.6%
This marks the biggest annual fuel price drop since October 2024, with further declines expected into July.
However, Sprake cautioned that this may be short-lived, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a weaker rand are already nudging global oil prices back up. If that trend continues, local fuel prices could begin climbing again—reigniting inflationary pressure from another front.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainty Looms
While headline inflation remains comfortably below the SARB’s 3%–6% target band, rising food costs are a growing threat to household budgets. With geopolitical risks and trade instability on the horizon, the inflation outlook remains uncertain.
For now, South Africans may have cheaper fuel—but rising food prices are making it harder to put beef on the table.